China Manufacturing PMI Falls to 49.3% in October, Below Expansion Threshold

China's manufacturing purchasing managers' index (PMI) fell to 49.3% in October 2026, down 0.8 percentage points from the previous month and below the 50% expansion threshold, according to data released on October 31 by the National Bureau of Statistics and the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing.

New export orders weakened, while the PMI for high-tech manufacturing stood at 51.3% and that for equipment manufacturing at 50.6%. Both remained above the threshold, indicating continued expansion in those segments despite the weaker overall reading.

The figures point to a divergence within manufacturing rather than a uniform slowdown across all segments. A PMI below 50% indicates contraction in the overall index, but the data do not establish how long the weakness will last or whether the stronger segments will remain above the threshold.

For manufacturers exposed to overseas demand, the direction of new export orders is a key measure to watch. Subsequent PMI readings will also help show whether the gap between the overall index and the high-tech and equipment manufacturing measures persists.